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La Liga | Gameweek 17
Dec 16, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
San Mames Barria
Atletico Madrid logo

Athletic Bilbao
2 - 0
Atletico

Guruzeta (51'), Williams (64')
FT(HT: 0-0)

De Paul (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Atletico 2-0 Lazio
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Only one of the last six La Liga meetings between these two sides have finished level, but we are predicting a stalemate on Saturday. Athletic are strong at home, while Atletico's away form has been patchy, so we are finding it difficult to predict another victory for Simeone's side here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
48.36% (0.045999999999999 0.05) 24.45% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 27.19% (-0.044 -0.04)
Both teams to score 55.54% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.25% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)46.75% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.99% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)69.01% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.6% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)19.4% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.79% (0.012 0.01)51.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.91% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)31.09% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.59% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)67.41% (0.058000000000007 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 48.36%
    Atletico Madrid 27.19%
    Draw 24.45%
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.89% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 8.11% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.43% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.03% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.12% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 1.82% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 48.36%
1-1 @ 11.55%
0-0 @ 6.03% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.54% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.45%
0-1 @ 7.05% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 6.75% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.12% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.63% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.6% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 27.19%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico

Athletic Bilbao
Draw
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao
40.3%
Draw
17.9%
Atletico Madrid
41.8%
67
Head to Head
Feb 19, 2023 5.30pm
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 34
Athletic Bilbao
2-0
Atletico
Hermoso (8' og.), Williams (56' pen.)
Garcia (25'), Williams (68'), Berenguer (90+1')

Hermoso (1'), Mandava (18'), Lodi (71')
Jan 13, 2022 7pm
Semi-Finals
Atletico
1-2
Athletic Bilbao
Simeone (62' og.)
Vrsaljko (90+1')
Gimenez (90+3')
Alvarez (77'), Williams (81')
Martinez (83'), Vesga (90'), Williams (90+1')
Sep 18, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 5
Atletico
0-0
Athletic Bilbao
Kondogbia (36'), Felix (78'), Savic (79'), Cunha (90'), Gimenez (90+7')
Felix (78')
Garcia (30'), Williams Arthuer (82')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona27193575274860
2Real Madrid28186459273260
3Atletico MadridAtletico28168446222456
4Athletic Bilbao281410446242252
5Villarreal27128749381144
6Real BetisBetis2812883835344
7Mallorca28117102834-640
8Celta Vigo28116114141039
9Rayo Vallecano2891093131037
10Getafe2899102523236
11Sevilla2899103237-536
12Real Sociedad28105132530-535
13GironaGirona2897123641-534
14Osasuna2771283339-633
15Espanyol2777132639-1328
16Valencia28610123146-1528
17AlavesAlaves2869133242-1027
18Leganes2869132643-1727
19Las PalmasLas Palmas2867153247-1525
20Real ValladolidValladolid2844201863-4516


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