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La Liga | Gameweek 30
Apr 1, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
Atletico Madrid logo

Villarreal
1 - 2
Atletico

Sorloth (50')
Capoue (27'), Parejo (58'), Mosquera (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Witsel (9'), Niguez (87')
Griezmann (26'), Barrios (62'), Niguez (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's La Liga clash between Villarreal and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Villarreal 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Villarreal are flying at the moment, and we are finding it difficult to predict the hosts to lose here, especially considering Atletico's away struggles. The Red and Whites will be determined to avoid a third straight league defeat, meanwhile, and we can see the points being shared in a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
VillarrealDrawAtletico Madrid
44.82% (0.288 0.29) 24.71% (0.206 0.21) 30.46% (-0.488 -0.49)
Both teams to score 56.9% (-0.948 -0.95)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.03% (-1.13 -1.13)45.97% (1.135 1.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.72% (-1.079 -1.08)68.28% (1.084 1.08)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.41% (-0.337 -0.34)20.59% (0.341 0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.87% (-0.53599999999999 -0.54)53.13% (0.541 0.54)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.65% (-0.88300000000001 -0.88)28.35% (0.889 0.89)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.91% (-1.129 -1.13)64.09% (1.135 1.14)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 44.82%
    Atletico Madrid 30.46%
    Draw 24.71%
VillarrealDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.23% (0.344 0.34)
2-1 @ 9.19% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.29% (0.198 0.2)
3-1 @ 4.84% (-0.037999999999999 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.84% (0.064 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.05% (-0.102 -0.1)
4-1 @ 1.91% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.52% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.21% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 44.82%
1-1 @ 11.62% (0.15 0.15)
0-0 @ 5.84% (0.277 0.28)
2-2 @ 5.79% (-0.13 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.28% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.71%
0-1 @ 7.36% (0.171 0.17)
1-2 @ 7.33% (-0.087000000000001 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.64% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.08% (-0.116 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.43% (-0.117 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-4 @ 0.97% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 30.46%

How you voted: Villarreal vs Atletico

Villarreal
29.9%
Draw
27.8%
Atletico Madrid
42.4%
144
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 13
Atletico
3-1
Villarreal
Witsel (45+1'), Griezmann (80'), Lino (85')
Moreno (20')
Capoue (45+2'), Akhomach (77')
Jun 4, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 38
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Jackson (9'), Pascual (90+2')
Moreno (36'), Capoue (39'), Baena (75')
Correa (18', 56')
Barrios (68'), Correa (76')
Witsel (70')
Aug 21, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 2
Atletico
0-2
Villarreal

Felix (48'), Gimenez (90+1')
Molina (90+4')
Pino (73'), Moreno (90+7')
Parejo (90+3'), Baena (90+4'), Moreno (90+9')
Jan 9, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 20
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Torres (29'), Moreno (58')
Correa (10'), Kondogbia (67')
Kondogbia (71')
Kondogbia (90+2')
Aug 29, 2021 9pm
Gameweek 3
Atletico
2-2
Villarreal
Suarez (56'), Mandi (90+4' og.)
Simeone (16'), Correa (28'), Lemar (45'), Suarez (59'), De Paul (85')
Trigueros (52'), Danjuma (74')
Moreno (61'), Rulli (85')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
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Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
 
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Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Germany Germany11003
2 Switzerland Switzerland11003
3 Hungary Hungary10010
4 Scotland flag Scotland10010

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Spain Spain11003
2 Italy Italy11003
3 Albania national flag Albania10010
4 Croatia Croatia10010

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Denmark Denmark00000
2 England flag England00000
3 Serbia Serbia00000
4 Slovenia Slovenia00000

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Austria Austria00000
2 France France00000
3 Netherlands Netherlands00000
4 Poland Poland00000

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Belgium Belgium00000
2 Romania Romania00000
3 Slovakia Slovakia00000
4 Ukraine Ukraine00000

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Czech Republic Czech Republic00000
2 Georgia Georgia00000
3 Portugal Portugal00000
4 Turkey Turkey00000


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