Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 71.42%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 12.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.98%) and 3-1 (8.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.03%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.