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Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jun 30, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio José Amalfitani

Velez Sarsfield
1 - 0
River Plate

Janson (15' pen.)
Perrone (21'), Gomez (41'), Pratto (70'), Medina (71')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Diaz (18')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Velez Sarsfield and River Plate, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Velez Sarsfield

Last Six:
Last Game: Defensa 1-1 Velez Sarsfield
Saturday, June 25 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

River Plate

Last Six:
Last Game: River Plate 2-1 Lanus
Sunday, June 26 at 12.30am in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Velez Sarsfield 1-3 River Plate

 Goals should be on the menu between two Argentinian outfits who always know how to find the back of the net, although the River Plate defence is far more steadfast than Velez's. Keeping a red-hot Alvarez at bay for 90 minutes will be a struggle for the hosts in the absence of their two most inspirational centre-backs, and we can only envisage Gallardo's side claiming a healthy first-leg advantage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 45.15%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.17%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Velez SarsfieldDrawRiver Plate
29.48% (-0.247 -0.25) 25.36% (0.024000000000001 0.02) 45.15% (0.225 0.23)
Both teams to score 54.18% (-0.213 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.72% (-0.213 -0.21)49.28% (0.213 0.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.66% (-0.193 -0.19)71.33% (0.19499999999999 0.19)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.3% (-0.283 -0.28)30.7% (0.283 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.04% (-0.337 -0.34)66.96% (0.33800000000001 0.34)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.18% (0.013999999999996 0.01)21.81% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.97% (0.021999999999998 0.02)55.03% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Velez Sarsfield 29.48%
    River Plate 45.14%
    Draw 25.36%
Velez SarsfieldDrawRiver Plate
1-0 @ 7.91% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
2-1 @ 7.11% (-0.047 -0.05)
2-0 @ 4.67% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-1 @ 2.8% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-0 @ 1.84% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 29.48%
1-1 @ 12.04% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.7% (0.058 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.41% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.36%
0-1 @ 10.19% (0.09 0.09)
1-2 @ 9.17% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
0-2 @ 7.76% (0.074 0.07)
1-3 @ 4.65% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.94% (0.039 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.75% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.77% (0.004 0)
0-4 @ 1.5% (0.015 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.05% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 45.14%

How you voted: Velez Sarsfield vs River Plate

Velez Sarsfield
28.6%
Draw
23.8%
River Plate
47.6%
21
Head to Head
Aug 14, 2021 10pm
River Plate
2-0
Velez Sarsfield
Jeremias Fernandez (50'), Romero (90')
Casco (15'), Fontana (80'), Armani (90'), Romero (90+1')

Caseres (65')
Sep 23, 2019 12am
River Plate
1-2
Velez Sarsfield
Fernandez (60')
Armani (82'), Montiel (83')
Dominguez (38'), Almada (83' pen.)
Bouzat (16'), Abram (19'), Gianetti (58'), Dominguez (87')
Dominguez (89')
Feb 4, 2019 12.30am
Velez Sarsfield
1-2
River Plate
Barreal (91')
Laso (66'), Galdames (72')
Gimenez (84')
Borre (49'), Quintero (86' pen.)
Palacios (62'), Suarez (79')
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