Championship | Gameweek 17
Oct 23, 2022 at 12pm UK
Vicarage Road
Watford4 - 0Luton
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Millwall 3-0 Watford
Wednesday, October 19 at 8pm in Championship
Wednesday, October 19 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Norwich 0-1 Luton
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in Championship
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in Championship
We said: Watford 2-1 Luton Town
Given that Luton are arguably the form team in the division, this feels like a difficult match to call. However, Watford tend to be a far better outfit in front of their own supporters, leading us to predict an entertaining victory for the Hornets. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Watford had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Luton Town |
33.67% ( 0.17) | 27.48% ( -0.09) | 38.85% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.17% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.56% ( 0.37) | 56.45% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.55% ( 0.3) | 77.45% ( -0.3) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.54% ( 0.3) | 31.46% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.16% ( 0.35) | 67.84% ( -0.34) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.74% ( 0.13) | 28.26% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.03% ( 0.17) | 63.97% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
Watford 33.67%
Luton Town 38.85%
Draw 27.47%
| Watford | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.28% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.92% Total : 33.67% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47% | 0-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.46% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 1.82% Total : 38.85% |
How you voted: Watford vs Luton
Watford
0.0%Draw
42.9%Luton Town
57.1%7
