Paris Saint-Germain continue their quest for Coupe de France glory on Saturday when they travel to fellow top-flight outfit Brest in the round of 32 on Saturday night.
Both sides go into the bout following much-needed victories in Ligue 1, with the hosts overcoming Dijon 3-1, while PSG downed Bordeaux by a goal to nil.
Match preview
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The visit of basement side Dijon proved to be the perfect tonic for an underperforming Brest, who once again produced a sublime first-half display of attacking dominance to sweep aside their counterparts 3-1 at the Stade-Francis Le Ble on Wednesday evening.
Steve Mounie, Franck Honorat and Irvin Cardona all netted in the first 45 minutes to kill the game off before the half-time whistle blew, and even though Roger Assale found the back of the net for a goal-shy Dijon, the relegation candidates never looked capable of threatening a second-half comeback.
That triumph was just their second win from 10 in Ligue 1, but the top flight takes a back seat for now as all 32 teams still left in the Coupe de France take to the pitch in the cup this weekend, and Olivier Dall'Oglio's men have already achieved their best finish since the 2014-15 campaign.
Les Pirates were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Auxerre in that season and fell at the first hurdle to Rennes and Lorient in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 editions respectively, but a 2-1 win over second-tier side Rodez earlier this month saw them set up a mouthwatering tie with PSG.
With Brest seemingly destined to finish in mid-table obscurity in Ligue 1, Dall'Oglio's free-scoring charges would love nothing more than a cup run, but attempting to dump serial winners PSG out of the tournament at this early stage could prove a bridge too far for Les Pirates.
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Moise Kean's winner was enough to send PSG through at the expense of second-tier side Caen in the previous round, but the French champions' victory paled into insignificance following the injury sustained to Neymar in a match where most feel he should not have started.
The Brazilian attacker has not featured for the club since being taken off in that game on February 10, and Mauricio Pochettino immediately came under fire for fielding him in a game which was expected to be a foregone conclusion before a ball was kicked, and it remains to be seen if he will be fit to feature against his former employers Barcelona next week.
Pochettino ought to have one eye on the second leg of that Champions League clash, but the Argentine will not want to pass up another opportunity for silverware in a competition where PSG have been crowned champions five times in the past six seasons - the outlier being defeat to Rennes in the final of the 2018-19 campaign.
The capital outfit were made to work for their victory over Bordeaux in midweek, but they managed to hold on for all three points thanks to Pablo Sarabia's well-taken winner in the first half, and PSG have enjoyed unparalleled success over Brest in the past few decades.
Indeed, PSG have won their last seven against Brest - including a 3-0 triumph earlier this season and a 5-2 win in the 2013-14 Coupe de France - while Les Pirates have not beaten the champions in any competition since January 1985.
Brest Coupe de France form: W
Brest form (all competitions): WWDLLW
Paris Saint-Germain Coupe de France form: W
Paris Saint-Germain form (all competitions): WWWLWW
Team News
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Brest only have two injury concerns in the form of Denys Bain and Christophe Herelle, with the hosts otherwise in good shape ahead of the last-32 tie.
Changes could be afoot, though, starting with Sebastien Cibois - recently dropped from the team - potentially being given a run-out in goal, while Jean-Kevin Duverne will hope to feature in defence.
Romain Faivre and Haris Belkebla were both benched in midweek but should return to the fold here as well, while Jeremy Le Douaron, who scored the winner against Rodez last time out, is pushing for a start up top.
PSG will welcome Kylian Mbappe back from suspension for this game, but Pochettino has learned his lesson over starting his brightest stars unnecessarily, so the Frenchman may be spared for the visit of Barcelona.
The likes of Alessandro Florenzi, Marco Verratti, Neymar and Angel Di Maria all remain sidelined and would not be risked in this one even if they were passed fit, while Moise Kean was revealed to have contracted coronavirus before the win over Bordeaux.
Alterations from the midweek victory could see Sergio Rico enjoy a rare outing in goal, while Abdou Diallo, Mitchel Bakker and Ander Herrera will also be vying for starts in the cup.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Cibois; Pierre-Gabriel, Chardonnet, Duverne, Perraud; Honorat, Belkebla, Lasne, Faivre; Le Douaron, Charbonnier
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Rico; Kehrer, Marquinhos, Diallo, Bakker; Paredes, Herrera; Sarabia, Rafinha, Draxler; Icardi
We say: Brest 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain
It remains to be seen how many alterations Pochettino will be willing to make before their Champions League second leg with Barcelona, and Brest certainly possess the attacking quality to trouble PSG's defence. The visitors may be without all three of their star attackers again, unless Mbappe is controversially risked, but the champions are not prepared to relinquish their stronghold on this competition and should do enough to progress to the next round.
Top tip
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Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 65.9%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Brest had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.87%) and 1-3 (7.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.12%), while for a Brest win it was 2-1 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
