Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 57.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 17.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.