The 2024-25 Champions League with its new format is on the verge of completion, with the 36-team League Phase table firmly taking shape.
It is not a shape many would have expected at this point, with Arne Slot's Liverpool leading the way in the Champions League standings as the only remaining perfect team with 18 points from six matches played.
Barcelona sit three points further back in second place, while Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter Milan, Brest and Lille have all collected 13 points and complete the top eight, sitting in the automatic last-16 qualification spots with two matches left to play.
Some footballing giants are struggling to date, though, with defending champions Real Madrid and Manchester City down in 20th and 22nd respectively in the 36-team table, while Paris Saint-Germain currently sit outside the playoff spots in 25th and are at risk of an early elimination from the competition.
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at how many points should be enough to see teams progress through the League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League.
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How many points are required to reach Champions League knockouts?
The League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League started in September last year and will run through to the end of January, meaning there is a slight extension on the December end date of the previous group-stage format.
All 36 clubs will play eight times in the League Phase and the top eight teams will automatically advance to the last 16, while teams finishing between ninth and 24th must compete in a two-legged playoff round to join them. Any side that finishes 25th or lower will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
According to studies from Football Meets Data, who have carried out over 10,000 simulations, between 15 and 16 points will most likely be enough to see teams secure a top-eight finish and progress to the knockout rounds of the Champions League in its new format.
This would therefore mean that clubs would be required to win at least five of their eight games in the League Phase, or another combination of victories and draws to reach the 15 to 16-point marker.
Liverpool have already notched up 18 points with two games still to play, despite Opta predicting pre-tournament that Slot's men would collect 13 points in total during the League Phase, and giving them a 31.7% chance of finishing in the top eight to progress automatically to the last 16.
Meanwhile, the report from Football Meets Data finds that teams will likely need to pick up nine points from eight games if they wish to finish in the top 24 and secure at least a place in the playoff round - a tally which the top-21 sides have all already reached.
> Click here to view every 2024-25 Champions League fixture
Oliver Thomas
