World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Jun 10, 2024 at 2pm UK

Estadio Nacional do Zimpeto

Somalia
1 - 3
Botswana

Hassan (74')
Ali (60')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sesinyi (10'), Gaolaolwe (53'), Seakanyeng (71' pen.)
Ramotse (50'), Phoko (90+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Somalia and Botswana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Somalia

Last Game: Mozambique 2-1 Somalia
Friday, June 7 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Botswana

Last Game: Uganda 1-0 Botswana
Friday, June 7 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

While Somalia have performed valiantly in this competition, there is an evident gulf in class between themselves and the rest of the teams in the group, and it seems unlikely that they will be able to challenge for qualification. Botswana have been far from their best in recent times as well, but they will fancy their chances against this opponent, and we feel they will manage to edge this result, albeit by a slender margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botswana win with a probability of 61.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 14.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botswana win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.51%) and 1-2 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Somalia win it was 1-0 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botswana would win this match.

Result
Somalia	Draw	Botswana
14.45% ( 0.1)	23.7% ( 0.13)	61.85% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 39.54% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.57% (

-0.26)

58.43% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.98% (

-0.2)

79.02% (

0.2)

Somalia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.61% (

-0)

51.38% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.4%

85.6%

Botswana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.34% (

-0.18)

18.66% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.01% (

-0.31)

49.99% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Somalia 14.45%

Botswana 61.84%

Draw 23.69%

Somalia	Draw	Botswana
1-0 @ 6.38% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.37% Total : 14.45%	1-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 3% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.4% Total : 23.69%	0-1 @ 16.09% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 13.51% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 7.56% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 5.03% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 3.17% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.62% Total : 61.84%