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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Somalia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Preliminary Round | 1st Leg
Mar 20, 2024 at 7pm UK
Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Somalia
0 - 3
Eswatini

FT(HT: 0-2)
Figuaredo (33'), Ndzinisa (45+4'), Thwala (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Somalia and Eswatini, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Somalia

Last Game: Somalia 0-1 Uganda
Tuesday, November 21 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Eswatini

Last Game: Eswatini 0-2 Cape Verde
Tuesday, November 21 at 2.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

We said: Somalia 0-2 Eswatini

 While both these sides reside in the lower echelons of the region's rankings, Eswatini have played significantly more football in recent times and have managed a few notable results, including holding Burkina Faso and South Africa to draws while beating Namibia all within the last year. We feel they will be too good for Somalia in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 77.76%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 6.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.85%) and 0-3 (12.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Somalia win it was 1-0 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Eswatini would win this match.

Result
SomaliaDrawEswatini
6.69% (0.443 0.44) 15.55% (0.704 0.7) 77.76% (-1.144 -1.14)
Both teams to score 36.09% (0.16200000000001 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.19% (-1.327 -1.33)46.8% (1.328 1.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.94% (-1.254 -1.25)69.06% (1.256 1.26)
Somalia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
40.15% (0.454 0.45)59.85% (-0.453 -0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
9.42% (0.231 0.23)90.57% (-0.229 -0.23)
Eswatini Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.9% (-0.62 -0.62)10.1% (0.623 0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.74% (-1.448 -1.45)33.25% (1.449 1.45)
Score Analysis
    Somalia 6.69%
    Eswatini 77.75%
    Draw 15.55%
SomaliaDrawEswatini
1-0 @ 3.1% (0.213 0.21)
2-1 @ 1.83% (0.104 0.1)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 6.69%
1-1 @ 7.11% (0.304 0.3)
0-0 @ 6.04% (0.331 0.33)
2-2 @ 2.09% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 15.55%
0-2 @ 15.88% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-1 @ 13.85% (0.39 0.39)
0-3 @ 12.14% (-0.32 -0.32)
1-2 @ 8.16% (0.131 0.13)
0-4 @ 6.96% (-0.383 -0.38)
1-3 @ 6.23% (-0.071 -0.07)
1-4 @ 3.57% (-0.141 -0.14)
0-5 @ 3.19% (-0.269 -0.27)
1-5 @ 1.64% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.6% (0.006 0.01)
0-6 @ 1.22% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-4 @ 0.92% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 77.75%

How you voted: Somalia vs Eswatini

Somalia
41.4%
Draw
6.9%
Eswatini
51.7%
29
rhs 2.0
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