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World Cup
Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 10, 2024 at 10pm UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
Paraguay national football team

Ecuador
0 - 0
Paraguay


Caicedo (32')
FT

Sandez (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Peru
Tuesday, September 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Paraguay

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Paraguay 1-0 Brazil
Wednesday, September 11 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Ecuador 0-0 Paraguay

 Ecuador ended 2023 by going five games unbeaten, and despite losing to Brazil last time out, the win over Peru suggests they should be among the favourites to qualify, and they will be favourites to win again here. It is almost certain to be a cagey encounter though, and Paraguay took four points from September's internationals without conceding, so they are likely to make it tough for Ecuador. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 60.5%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 14.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.65%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-0 draw for this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawParaguay
60.5% (0.67899999999999 0.68) 24.81% (-0.378 -0.38) 14.68% (-0.302 -0.3)
Both teams to score 37.43% (0.261 0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.39% (0.725 0.73)61.61% (-0.726 -0.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.55% (0.534 0.53)81.45% (-0.53399999999999 -0.53)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.59% (0.562 0.56)20.41% (-0.562 -0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.16% (0.886 0.89)52.84% (-0.886 -0.89)
Paraguay Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
47.02% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)52.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.37% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)86.63% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 60.5%
    Paraguay 14.68%
    Draw 24.81%
EcuadorDrawParaguay
1-0 @ 17.18% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-0 @ 13.65% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 8.67% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
3-0 @ 7.23% (0.176 0.18)
3-1 @ 4.6% (0.111 0.11)
4-0 @ 2.87% (0.118 0.12)
4-1 @ 1.83% (0.075 0.08)
3-2 @ 1.46% (0.036 0.04)
5-0 @ 0.91% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 60.5%
1-1 @ 10.91% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-0 @ 10.81% (-0.29 -0.29)
2-2 @ 2.76% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 24.81%
0-1 @ 6.87% (-0.189 -0.19)
1-2 @ 3.47% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-2 @ 2.18% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 14.68%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Paraguay

Ecuador
58.1%
Draw
29.0%
Paraguay
12.9%
93
Head to Head
Mar 24, 2022 11.30pm
Group Stage
Paraguay
3-1
Ecuador
Morales (10'), Hincapie (45+6' og.), Almiron (54')
Almiron (32'), Riveros (39'), Cubas (43'), Gomez (81'), Villasanti (90+1')
Riveros (88')
Caicedo (85' pen.)
Valencia (53'), Torres (72')
> Preview
Sep 2, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
Ecuador
2-0
Paraguay
Torres (87'), Estrada (90+5')
Estupinan (34'), Rojas (56'), Estrada (90+6')

Morel (37'), Alonso (67')
> Preview
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