Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 39.07%. A win for Paraguay had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Paraguay win was 0-1 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.