Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 22, 2024 at 11pm UK

Levi's Stadium

Ecuador
1 - 2
Venezuela

Sarmiento (40')
Sarmiento (29'), Paez (45+1')
Valencia (22')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Cadiz (64'), Bello (74')
Machis (31'), Casseres Jr (45+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Copa America clash between Ecuador and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Honduras
Sunday, June 16 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Venezuela

All competitions

Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Venezuela
Sunday, March 24 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

We said: Ecuador 2-1 Venezuela

There is not an awful lot to choose between these two sides, and we are expecting a close match on Saturday. It would not be a surprise to see a draw, but we are just backing Ecuador to have enough to navigate their way to a vital victory in their opening match of what is shaping up to be a fascinating competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.5%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 23.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.84%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Venezuela
47.5% ( 0.08)	29.22% ( -0.01)	23.28% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 39.16% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.75% (

-0)

66.25% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.24% (

-0)

84.75% (

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.7% (

0.04)

28.29% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.98% (

0.05)

64.02% (

-0.06)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.61% (

-0.07)

45.38% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.76% (

-0.06)

81.24% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 47.49%

Venezuela 23.27%

Draw 29.21%

Ecuador	Draw	Venezuela
1-0 @ 16.21% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.09% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.4% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.34% 4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 1.48% Total : 47.49%	0-0 @ 12.84% 1-1 @ 12.8% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.19% ( -0) Other @ 0.38% Total : 29.21%	0-1 @ 10.14% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.01% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.68% Total : 23.27%