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World Cup
Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 21, 2023 at 11.30pm UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
Chile national football team

Ecuador
1 - 0
Chile

Mena (21')
Torres (36'), Preciado (61')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Pulgar (44'), Echeverria (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Venezuela 0-0 Ecuador
Thursday, November 16 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Chile

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Chile 0-0 Paraguay
Friday, November 17 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Ecuador 0-0 Chile

 Ecuador have been steady if not spectacular so far and will expect to claim another result against a Chile side in disarray. The visitors will have to regroup quickly after the resignation of their manager just a few days ago, and an away trip to a side notoriously stingy in defence is not the ideal fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.17%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Chile had a probability of 23.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (7.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.42%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawChile
47.17% (-0.38 -0.38) 29.64% (0.096 0.1) 23.19% (0.282 0.28)
Both teams to score 38.17% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
32.55% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)67.44% (0.093000000000004 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
14.43% (-0.065 -0.06)85.56% (0.064000000000007 0.06)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.94% (-0.247 -0.25)29.06% (0.244 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.02% (-0.305 -0.31)64.97% (0.30199999999999 0.3)
Chile Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.81% (0.229 0.23)46.19% (-0.231 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.13% (0.174 0.17)81.86% (-0.178 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 47.15%
    Chile 23.18%
    Draw 29.63%
EcuadorDrawChile
1-0 @ 16.58% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
2-0 @ 10.24% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 7.92% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.22% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
3-1 @ 3.26% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.3% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.26% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.01% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.36%
Total : 47.15%
0-0 @ 13.42% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
1-1 @ 12.81% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-2 @ 3.06% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 29.63%
0-1 @ 10.36% (0.1 0.1)
1-2 @ 4.95% (0.048 0.05)
0-2 @ 4% (0.065 0.06)
1-3 @ 1.27% (0.02 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.03% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 23.18%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Chile

Ecuador
75.0%
Draw
21.9%
Chile
3.1%
32
Head to Head
Nov 17, 2021 12.15am
Group Stage
Chile
0-2
Ecuador
Meneses (55')
Vidal (14')
Castillo (26'), Franco (45+2')
> Preview
Sep 5, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
Ecuador
0-0
Chile
Valencia (21')
Sornoza (63')
Vegas (13'), Roco (58'), Vargas (71')
> Preview
Jun 22, 2019 12am
Group Stage
Ecuador
1-2
Chile
Valencia (26' pen.)
Mendez (3'), Mena (34'), Arboleda (78'), Gruezo (81'), Velasco (96')
Achilier (89')
Fuenzalida (8'), Sanchez (51')
Arias (44'), Beausejour (52'), Isla (82'), Vidal (86')
Oct 6, 2017 12.30am
Group Stage
Chile
2-1
Ecuador
Vargas (22'), Sanchez (85')
Ibarra (82')
> Live Commentary
Jun 12, 2015 12.30am
Group Stage
Chile
2-0
Ecuador
> Match Report
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