World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Sep 8, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

Argentina
1 - 0
Ecuador

Messi (78')
Paredes (82')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Cifuentes (61')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Argentina

All competitions

Last Game: Indonesia 0-2 Argentina
Monday, June 19 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	3	6
2	Poland	3	0	4
3	Mexico	3	-1	4
4	Saudi Arabia	3	-2	3

Ecuador

All competitions

Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Costa Rica
Wednesday, June 21 at 1.15am in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	3	4	7
2	Senegal	3	1	6
3	Ecuador	3	1	4
4	Qatar	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 69.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 10.91%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.83%) and 3-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.

Result
Argentina	Draw	Ecuador
69.71% ( -0.11)	19.38% ( 0.04)	10.91% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 41.75% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.3% (

-0.02)

49.7% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.29% (

-0.02)

71.71% (

0.02)

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.88% (

-0.03)

13.11% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.24% (

-0.08)

39.76% (

0.08)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.05% (

0.11)

51.94% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.03% (

0.07)

85.97% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Argentina 69.69%

Ecuador 10.91%

Draw 19.38%

Argentina	Draw	Ecuador
2-0 @ 14.05% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 13.83% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 9.52% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.23% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.17% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 2.52% Total : 69.69%	1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.81% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.49% Total : 19.38%	0-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.02% Total : 10.91%