Back in front of their home fans for the first time since an inspiring World Cup performance - and just a matter of months before the women's World Cup is held on the continent - Australia should be able to get the better of an Ecuador team stripped of their talismanic captain Valencia. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 42.74%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 28.18%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.65%) and 2-1 (8.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.

Result
Australia	Draw	Ecuador
42.74% ( -0.02)	29.08% ( 0)	28.18% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 42.82%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.55% (

-0)

63.45%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.21% (

-0)

82.79% (

-0)

Australia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.54% (

-0.01)

29.46% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.53% (

-0.02)

65.46% (

0.01)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.7% (

0.01)

39.3% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24% (

0.01)

76% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Australia 42.73%

Ecuador 28.17%

Draw 29.07%

Australia	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 14.14% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.52% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.29% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.08% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 1.45% Total : 42.73%	1-1 @ 13.21% 0-0 @ 11.57% 2-2 @ 3.77% Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.07%	0-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.17% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.05% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.92% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 1.47% Total : 28.17%