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Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Mar 30, 2022 at 12.30am UK
 
Argentina national football team

Ecuador
1 - 1
Argentina

Valencia (90+3')
Castillo (37'), Caicedo (49'), Franco (56'), Estrada (68'), Hincapie (80')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Alvarez (24')
Mac Allister (18'), Scaloni (67'), Otamendi (68'), Tagliafico (90+1')

Preview: Ecuador vs. Argentina - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Argentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having both already secured their progression through World Cup 2022 Qualifying, Ecuador and Argentina will do battle in the final game of the round of international fixtures.

The Albiceleste sit second, having gone unbeaten so far, while their hosts have secured a top-four finish against the odds.


Match preview

 Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni during the match on November 21, 2021© Reuters

Despite not being heavily fancied to take a spot in the top five of the South American World Cup Qualifying group, Ecuador managed to book their spot in the tournament in impressive fashion, having started on the front foot.

After a narrow defeat to Tuesday's opponents to kick off the campaign, La Tri recorded three straight wins to establish themselves in the leading pack, and, with 16 points from the opening 10 games, they sat in a reasonably strong position.

Gustavo Alfaro's side then put another crucial run together, going five games unbeaten as victories over Venezuela and Chile were surrounded by draws with Colombia, Brazil and Peru, putting them on the verge of qualifying heading into the last two fixtures.

They took on Paraguay last time out, knowing that a win would see them earn a top-four finish and automatic progression, and, while they were unable to take a point, a defeat for Peru meant La Tri advanced regardless.

Jordy Caicedo's late penalty was only a consolation after strikes from Robert Morales and Miguel Almiron, alongside a Piero Hincapie own goal, had given the hosts a commanding lead, but Alfaro's men will still be on a high from their qualification and will now hope to round off the Qualifying campaign with what would be an eye-catching win.

Ecuador coach Gustavo Alfaro reacts on March 24, 2022© Reuters

They meet an Argentinian side who have lived up to expectations, establishing themselves at the top end of the South American group having gone unbeaten thus far.

With 11 victories and five draws from their 16 matches, La Albiceleste only trail Brazil and boast a 13-point lead on Tuesday's third-placed opponents thanks to impressive records at both ends of the pitch, with only the group leaders bettering their tally of 26 goals and having conceded fewer than the seven goals Lionel Scaloni's men have shipped.

They come into Tuesday's match having won all three of their qualifying games since the turn of the year, firstly handing out defeats to Chile and Colombia in the opening round of fixtures in 2022.

La Albiceste returned to action with a home meeting against Venezuela on Friday, and goals from Nicolas Gonzalez, Angel Di Maria and Lionel Messi ensured they continued their impressive run with a dominant 3-0 victory.

With their postponed meeting with Brazil due to be played in the summer, Scaloni's men will aim to keep their slim hopes of a first-placed finish alive with an away win.

Ecuador World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L

Ecuador form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L

Argentina World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Lionel Messi in action for Argentina on September 10, 2021© Reuters

Ecuador should not make too many changes to their team despite last week's defeat, with star man and all-time top scorer Enner Valencia again set to lead the line.

Piero Hincapie continues to be a fixture at the back, and the Bayer Leverkusen man will be keen to bounce back from his own goal in the disappointing 3-1 loss.

He will likely partner Felix Torres, while Hernan Galindez will again operate between the sticks in the absence of Alexander Dominguez.

Argentina's front line will be led by talismanic captain and top scorer Lionel Messi, and Scaloni has plenty of options to choose between in the other spots.

Inter Milan's Lautaro Martinez and Paris Saint-Germain's Mauro Icardi are not involved, but Nicolas Gonzalez, Alexis Mac Allister, Joaquin Correa, Angel Di Maria and Julian Alvarez are all battling for spots in attack.

Veteran goalkeeper Franco Armani may keep his place between the sticks in the absence of first-choice stopper Emiliano Martinez, while exciting defender Lisandro Martinez is not involved, leaving Nicolas Otamendi and German Pezzella to partner up at the heart of the back four.

Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Galindez; Preciado, Torres, Hincapie, Estupinan; Gruezo, Mendez; Castillo, Mena, Rojas; Valencia

Argentina possible starting lineup:
Armani; Molina, Pezzella, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Paredes; Gonzalez, Di Maria, A Correa; Messi


SM words green background

We say: Ecuador 0-2 Argentina

Even without several key attackers, Argentina boast more quality than their hosts and should not run into many issues on their way to victory.

La Tri have certainly been impressive in the qualifying campaign, but, with their World Cup place already secured, Alfaro's men may take their foot off the gas slightly.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 53.38%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 22.29%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.79%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Ecuador win it was 1-0 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Ecuador vs Argentina

Ecuador
13.4%
Draw
8.1%
Argentina
78.5%
186
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Ecuador's Robert Arboleda with teammates look dejected after the match on October 9, 2020
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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
3 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264219
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264222
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477


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