World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

Argentina
1 - 0
Paraguay

Otamendi (3')
Fernandez (7')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Alonso (21'), Bareiro (50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Argentina and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Argentina could line up for Friday's CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier against Paraguay.

Form, Standings, Stats

Argentina

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Paraguay

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Paraguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

We said: Argentina 3-0 Paraguay

All eyes will be on whether Lionel Messi is passed fit to feature on Friday, but even if the 36-year-old is not involved, Argentina will be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top. Paraguay have frustrated Argentina over the years, but we believe that the world champions have enough quality in their side to pick up maximum points against a goal-shy Albirroja outfit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 85.6%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 3.45%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.96%) and 1-0 (12.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.84%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (1.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.

Result
Argentina	Draw	Paraguay
85.6% ( -0.73)	10.95% ( 0.52)	3.45% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 29.65% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.86% (

-1.3)

41.14% (

1.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.46% (

-1.33)

63.54% (

1.33)

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.07% (

-0.42)

6.93% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.57% (

-1.13)

25.42% (

1.13)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

31.86% (

0.21)

68.14% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

5.72% (

0.08)

94.28% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Argentina 85.58%

Paraguay 3.45%

Draw 10.95%

Argentina	Draw	Paraguay
2-0 @ 16.82% ( 0.22) 3-0 @ 14.96% ( -0.16) 1-0 @ 12.6% ( 0.45) 4-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.31) 4-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.1) 6-0 @ 2.37% ( -0.2) 5-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.07) 7-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.52% Total : 85.58%	1-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.15% Total : 10.95%	0-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.72% Total : 3.45%