World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2022 at 11.30pm UK

Paraguay
3 - 1
Ecuador

Morales (10'), Hincapie (45+6' og.), Almiron (54')
Almiron (32'), Riveros (39'), Cubas (43'), Gomez (81'), Villasanti (90+1')
Riveros (88')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Caicedo (85' pen.)
Valencia (53'), Torres (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Paraguay and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paraguay

Last Six:

Last Game: Japan 4-1 Paraguay
Thursday, June 2 at 11am in International Friendlies

Next Game: South Korea vs. Paraguay
Friday, June 10 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	5	10
2	Uruguay	4	2	7
3	Paraguay	4	2	6
4	Chile	4	-1	5
5	Bolivia	4	-8	0

Ecuador

Last Six:

Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 6 at 12.30am in International Friendlies

Next Game: Ecuador vs. Mali
Sunday, June 12 at 12.30am in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	4	8	10
2	Peru	4	-2	7
3	Colombia	4	-1	4
4	Ecuador	4	-1	3
5	Venezuela	4	-4	2

With far more to play for, and with momentum on their side, we back Ecuador to secure a crucial win on Thursday. La Tri have performed over and above all expectations to remain in the top four, and they should have enough to cruise past a struggling Paraguay team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 47.12%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 24.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.82%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paraguay would win this match.

Result
Paraguay	Draw	Ecuador
47.12%	27.93%	24.94%

Both teams to score 43.59%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.62%

61.38%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.72%

81.28%

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.82%

26.17%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.74%

61.25%

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.05%

40.95%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.49%

77.51%

Score Analysis

Paraguay 47.12%

Ecuador 24.94%

Draw 27.92%

Paraguay	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 14.36% 2-0 @ 9.63% 2-1 @ 8.6% 3-0 @ 4.3% 3-1 @ 3.84% 3-2 @ 1.72% 4-0 @ 1.44% 4-1 @ 1.29% Other @ 1.94% Total : 47.12%	1-1 @ 12.82% 0-0 @ 10.71% 2-2 @ 3.84% Other @ 0.55% Total : 27.92%	0-1 @ 9.57% 1-2 @ 5.73% 0-2 @ 4.27% 1-3 @ 1.7% 0-3 @ 1.27% 2-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.26% Total : 24.94%