Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21

Feb 18, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Estádio Do Dragão

Porto
1 - 0
Rio Ave

Martinez (44')
Mario (65'), Pepe (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ronaldo (32'), Pantalon (44'), Pereira (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Rio Ave, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Porto
Sunday, February 12 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Rio Ave

All competitions

Last Game: Rio Ave 2-0 Estoril
Monday, February 13 at 7pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

While Rio Ave will be looking to build on Monday's victory, they are in for a tough 90 minutes against a Porto side who have won their last nine matches across all competitions. The Dragoes have made their home ground a fortress and we are tipping them to pick up an eighth straight home win on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 81.25%. A draw had a probability of 12.8% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 5.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.13%) and 1-0 (10.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.08%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (2.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Rio Ave
81.25% ( -0.75)	12.79% ( 0.45)	5.96% ( 0.31)

Both teams to score 41.63% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.22% (

-0.84)

36.77% (

0.84)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.06% (

-0.91)

58.94% (

0.91)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.04% (

-0.33)

6.96% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.5% (

-0.88)

25.49% (

0.88)

Rio Ave Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.74% (

0.39)

55.25% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.96% (

0.23)

88.03% (

-0.23)

Score Analysis

Porto 81.24%

Rio Ave 5.96%

Draw 12.79%

Porto	Draw	Rio Ave
2-0 @ 13.65% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 12.13% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 8.1% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 8.09% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 7.2% ( -0) 4-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 4.31% ( -0.22) 5-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.56% Total : 81.24%	1-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.47% Total : 12.79%	0-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.88% Total : 5.96%