Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20

Feb 12, 2023 at 6pm UK

Estádio José Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
1 - 2
Porto

Chermiti (90+7')
Reis (42'), Ugarte (68'), Edwards (77'), Adan (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Uribe (60'), Pepe (90+4')
Galeno (44')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Rio Ave 0-1 Sporting Lisbon
Monday, February 6 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Viseu 0-1 Porto
Wednesday, February 8 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Porto

This will be an intriguing battle between a side very strong at home against a side who have been unbeatable for months now. Sporting have struggled to get the upper hand against the other two Portuguese giants this season though, so Porto may just have the edge. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Porto
31.59% ( -0.32)	26.29% ( -0.1)	42.12% ( 0.44)

Both teams to score 52.24% (

0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.73% (

0.34)

52.27% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.03% (

0.29)

73.97% (

-0.29)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.26% (

-0.05)

30.75% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.99% (

-0.06)

67.01% (

0.06)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.43% (

0.38)

24.57% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.95% (

0.52)

59.06% (

-0.52)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 31.59%

Porto 42.11%

Draw 26.29%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.06% Total : 31.59%	1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.29%	0-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 7.44% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.11% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.62% Total : 42.11%