Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.99%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
Result | ||
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Famalicao |
34.92% ( -0.18) | 27.08% ( -0.02) | 37.99% ( 0.2) |
Both teams to score 50.57% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.23% ( 0.04) | 54.77% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.92% ( 0.04) | 76.08% ( -0.03) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.19% ( -0.09) | 29.81% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.11% ( -0.11) | 65.89% ( 0.11) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.04% ( 0.14) | 27.95% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.41% ( 0.17) | 63.58% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Famalicao |
1-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2% ( -0) 4-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 34.92% | 1-1 @ 12.85% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0) Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.08% | 0-1 @ 10.62% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.92% Total : 37.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
2 | Porto | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 22 |
4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
9 | Casa Pia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 |
13 | AVS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
17 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
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