Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 36.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.75%) and 0-2 (5.91%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.