Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.28%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 23.51% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.85%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (5.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.