Major League Soccer

Apr 17, 2022 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
2 - 1
Philadelphia

Jimenez (39'), Pozuelo (51')
Nelson (19'), Pozuelo (30'), Bradley (45+1'), Chung (75')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Carranza (34')
Carranza (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Philadelphia Union

Last Six:

Last Game: New England 1-1 Philadelphia
Sunday, May 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Next Game: Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
Sunday, June 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Philadelphia Union	14	9	25
2	New York Red Bulls	14	7	23
3	CF Montreal	14	4	23

We said: Toronto 0-1 Philadelphia Union

TFC are young and fast with plenty of potential, but all of those qualities can also be said about the Union, who are sounder defensively and do not make the mental errors that we are seeing from time to time in Toronto. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 34.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	Philadelphia Union
39.16%	25.86%	34.98%

Both teams to score 54.57%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.32%

49.68%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.3%

71.69%

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.06%

24.94%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.43%

59.57%

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.7%

27.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.26%

62.74%

Score Analysis

Toronto 39.16%

Philadelphia Union 34.98%

Draw 25.85%

Toronto	Draw	Philadelphia Union
1-0 @ 9.45% 2-1 @ 8.52% 2-0 @ 6.57% 3-1 @ 3.95% 3-0 @ 3.04% 3-2 @ 2.56% 4-1 @ 1.37% 4-0 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.64% Total : 39.16%	1-1 @ 12.27% 0-0 @ 6.81% 2-2 @ 5.53% 3-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.85%	0-1 @ 8.84% 1-2 @ 7.97% 0-2 @ 5.74% 1-3 @ 3.45% 0-3 @ 2.48% 2-3 @ 2.4% 1-4 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.99% Total : 34.98%