Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 32

Apr 16, 2022 at 4pm UK

Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

St Etienne
2 - 1
Brest

Camara (14', 39')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Honorat (8')
Pierre-Gabriel (74'), Belkebla (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Saint-Etienne and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Saint-Etienne

Last Six:

Last Game: St Etienne 1-1 Auxerre (4-5 pen.)
Sunday, May 29 at 6pm in Ligue 1 Playoffs

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
17	Clermont	38	-31	36
18	Saint-Etienne	38	-35	32
19	Metz	38	-34	31

Brest

Last Six:

Last Game: Brest 2-4 Bordeaux
Saturday, May 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
10	Lille	38	0	55
11	Brest	38	-8	48
12	Reims	38	-1	46

We said: Saint-Etienne 3-2 Brest

Low-scoring affairs have not been on the menu for Saint-Etienne recently, and they should fancy their chances against a Brest side who just cannot keep the back door shut away from home, especially with Khazri back and raring to go. Les Verts' own defensive deficiencies means that Brest can feel confident of notching up a couple themselves, but a Saint-Etienne side desperate to respond in front of their own fans can edge their way to three points against a Brest side who have very little left to fight for. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 40.04%. A win for Brest had a probability of 33.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.

Result
Saint-Etienne	Draw	Brest
40.04%	26.25%	33.71%

Both teams to score 53.02%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.44%

51.56%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.64%

73.36%

Saint-Etienne Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.67%

25.33%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.89%

60.11%

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71%

29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.1%

64.9%

Score Analysis

Saint-Etienne 40.03%

Brest 33.71%

Draw 26.25%

Saint-Etienne	Draw	Brest
1-0 @ 10.08% 2-1 @ 8.57% 2-0 @ 6.93% 3-1 @ 3.93% 3-0 @ 3.17% 3-2 @ 2.43% 4-1 @ 1.35% 4-0 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.49% Total : 40.03%	1-1 @ 12.48% 0-0 @ 7.34% 2-2 @ 5.31% 3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.25%	0-1 @ 9.09% 1-2 @ 7.73% 0-2 @ 5.63% 1-3 @ 3.19% 0-3 @ 2.32% 2-3 @ 2.19% 1-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.71%