Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 30

Apr 3, 2022 at 2pm UK

Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

St Etienne
2 - 4
Marseille

Bouanga (9'), Gourna-Douath (86')
Mangala (45+1'), Thioub (77')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Payet (45+1' pen.), Kolodziejczak (60' og.), Dieng (68' pen.), Harit (73')
Targhalline (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Saint-Etienne and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Saint-Etienne

Last Six:

Last Game: St Etienne 1-1 Auxerre (4-5 pen.)
Sunday, May 29 at 6pm in Ligue 1 Playoffs

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
17	Clermont	38	-31	36
18	Saint-Etienne	38	-35	32
19	Metz	38	-34	31

Marseille

Last Six:

Last Game: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Saturday, May 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint-Germain	38	54	86
2	Marseille	38	25	71
3	Monaco	38	25	69

We said: Saint-Etienne 1-2 Marseille

Given the major improvement enjoyed by the hosts, we predict an interesting encounter on Saturday and would not be surprised to see Dupraz's men come away with a result. On the whole, though, we just give Les Olympiens the edge given the impressive quality throughout their squad and back them to return home with a hard-fought win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.88%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 25.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-2 (8.74%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Saint-Etienne	Draw	Marseille
25.98%	25.14%	48.88%

Both teams to score 52.34%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.52%

50.49%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.59%

72.41%

Saint-Etienne Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.98%

34.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.29%

70.71%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.33%

20.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.74%

53.26%

Score Analysis

Saint-Etienne 25.99%

Marseille 48.87%

Draw 25.13%

Saint-Etienne	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 7.58% 2-1 @ 6.44% 2-0 @ 4.09% 3-1 @ 2.32% 3-2 @ 1.83% 3-0 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.26% Total : 25.99%	1-1 @ 11.95% 0-0 @ 7.03% 2-2 @ 5.08% 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.13%	0-1 @ 11.08% 1-2 @ 9.42% 0-2 @ 8.74% 1-3 @ 4.95% 0-3 @ 4.59% 2-3 @ 2.67% 1-4 @ 1.95% 0-4 @ 1.81% 2-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.61% Total : 48.87%