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Ligue 1
Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33
May 12, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Lorient logo

Marseille
3 - 1
Lorient

Aubameyang (36', 54' pen.), Gigot (41')
Aubameyang (49'), Gueye (73'), Murillo (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Mendy (43')
Laporte (17'), Katseris (51'), Bamba (61'), Abergel (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lorient, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Atalanta 3-0 Marseille
Thursday, May 9 at 8pm in Europa League

Lorient

All competitions
Last Game: Lens 2-0 Lorient
Friday, May 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 3-1 Lorient

 Marseille would have been disappointed with Thursday's display in Bergamo, but we think that they will produce a positive response to showcase their attacking talent against a Lorient side that has the worst defensive record in the division. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 67.11%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 14.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
MarseilleDrawLorient
67.11% (0.015999999999991 0.02) 18.86%14.03% (-0.013 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.89% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.14% (-0.026999999999994 -0.03)39.86% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.78% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)62.22% (0.031000000000006 0.03)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.03% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)10.97% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.79% (-0.0069999999999908 -0.01)35.21% (0.012 0.01)
Lorient Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.41% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)40.59% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.81% (-0.032999999999998 -0.03)77.19% (0.036999999999992 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 67.11%
    Lorient 14.03%
    Draw 18.86%
MarseilleDrawLorient
2-0 @ 10.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 9.84% (0.012 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.8% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 8.01% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.22% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 4.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 3.99% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.26% (-0.004 -0)
5-0 @ 1.96% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.76% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 4.17%
Total : 67.11%
1-1 @ 8.87% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 4.45% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.42% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 18.86%
0-1 @ 4.01% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-2 @ 4% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 1.81% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 1.2% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 14.03%

How you voted: Marseille vs Lorient

Marseille
81.8%
Draw
12.1%
Lorient
6.1%
33
Head to Head
Dec 10, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Lorient
2-4
Marseille
Faivre (41'), Mendy (52')
Le Goff (14'), Mendy (16'), Laporte (45+3'), Innocent (62'), Mendy (71')
Mbemba (3'), Aubameyang (9', 42'), Balerdi (33')
Balerdi (21'), Lodi (57'), Gigot (59')
Clauss (80')
> Preview
Apr 9, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 30
Lorient
0-0
Marseille
> Preview
Jan 14, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 19
Marseille
3-1
Lorient
Kolasinac (38'), Sanchez (53'), Veretout (59')
Moffi (29')
> Preview
May 8, 2022 4.05pm
Gameweek 36
Lorient
0-3
Marseille

Lemoine (56')
Dieng (39'), Guendouzi (48'), Gerson (67')
Saliba (65')
> Preview
Oct 17, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Marseille
4-1
Lorient
Kamara (27'), Guendouzi (56', 90+1'), Milik (85')
Lauriente (13' pen.)
Lauriente (81')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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