We said: Marseille 3-1 Lorient
Marseille would have been disappointed with Thursday's display in Bergamo, but we think that they will produce a positive response to showcase their attacking talent against a Lorient side that has the worst defensive record in the division. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 67.11%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 14.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Lorient |
67.11% ( 0.02) | 18.86% | 14.03% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 52.89% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.14% ( -0.03) | 39.86% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.78% ( -0.03) | 62.22% ( 0.03) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.03% ( -0) | 10.97% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 64.79% ( -0.01) | 35.21% ( 0.01) |
| Lorient Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.41% ( -0.04) | 40.59% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.81% ( -0.03) | 77.19% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Lorient |
| 2-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.43% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.99% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.96% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.76% ( -0)Other @ 4.17% Total : 67.11% | 1-1 @ 8.87% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.42% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.86% | 0-1 @ 4.01% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.81% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 1.68% Total : 14.03% |
