Marseille will aim to put their Europa Conference League disappointment behind them when they travel to Lorient for Sunday's Ligue 1 clash at the Stade du Moustoir.
Jorge Sampaoli's side suffered European heartache at the hands of Feyenoord in midweek, while their hosts most recently fell to a 2-1 home loss to Reims.
Match preview
© Reuters
Facing arguably their most challenging test left before the final whistle blows on their 2021-22 season, Lorient have a third successive season of Ligue 1 football firmly in their sights, but defeat to Reims in front of their own fans last weekend did their survival bid no favours.
Arber Zeneli and El Bilal Toure netted either side of Terem Moffi's eighth goal of the season to leave Les Merlus just peeking over their shoulder somewhat, but their top-flight destiny is still in their own hands with only three games left to play.
As things stand, Lorient are safe in 16th in the rankings but are only three points clear of Saint-Etienne in the relegation playoff place, while 19th-placed Bordeaux are still in with a shot of usurping Christophe Pelissier's side ahead of their relegation six-pointer next Saturday.
A home meeting with Troyes represents an ideal way for Lorient to round off a season of mixed fortunes, but preserving their top-flight status was always going to be the main goal once again, and results going their way this weekend could all but confirm their survival.
The recent loss to Reims also represents Lorient's only defeat from their last four at the Stade du Moustoir, but Marseille are seeking to make a major statement this weekend after coming up short in Europe.
© Reuters
A spate of defensive lapses in the first leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final with Feyenoord ultimately proved costly for Marseille, whose profligacy prevented them from turning the tie around in the second leg at the Orange Velodrome.
Bamba Dieng and Arkadiusz Milik both spurned opportunities to drag Les Olympiens back into the tie, but after losing Dimitri Payet to injury after just 33 minutes on Thursday night, the writing was on the wall for Sampaoli's crop as Feyenoord advanced to the final, where they will meet Roma.
Suffering a disheartening 3-0 loss to Lyon in their most recent Ligue 1 game means that Marseille's grip on second place is no longer as tight as it was, but they still hold a three-point advantage over Rennes and Monaco - the former of whom they will meet in the penultimate gameweek before rounding off their season with a clash with fellow European contenders Strasbourg.
While Marseille will not be adding another European crown to their trophy cabinet this season, a spot in next season's Champions League is very nearly theirs, and not since October have Les Olympiens failed to score on the road in the top flight.
Dropping points on Sunday is simply not an option for Marseille, but they enter the contest having won each of their last five against Lorient after prevailing 4-1 earlier in the season, and it has been a decade since Lorient last got the better of Les Olympiens - then under Didier Deschamps's tutelage - at the Stade du Moustoir.
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
After only just making his comeback from injury in the loss to Reims, Lorient attacker Stephane Diarra ended his substitute outing having picked up a fresh issue in the thigh area, and he will take his place on the sidelines here.
However, Lorient have no other concerns to report ahead of Sunday's clash, and a meeting with free-scoring Marseille could tempt Pelissier to return to a back five given his wealth of defensive options.
The veteran Jeremy Morel could benefit from such a shift in formation, while Enzo Le Fee's spot in the engine room is seemingly safe following Diarra's latest injury blow.
Meanwhile, Marseille talisman Payet was in tears on the bench on Thursday following his muscular injury - the 35-year-old memorably also suffered a similar problem in the 2018 Europa League final - and the severity of his problem is yet to be determined.
Payet is certainly not expected to be available on Sunday either way, and Sampaoli should therefore be without no fewer than three players due to Konrad de la Fuente and Leonardo Balerdi's lengthy absences.
After Milik and Dieng both flattered to deceive in the second leg with Feyenoord, Cedric Bakambu may be given the nod in the final third, where Cengiz Under will aim to take advantage of Payet's absence.
Lorient possible starting lineup:
Dreyer; Mendes, Laporte, Morel, Petrot, Le Goff; Le Fee, Innocent, Monconduit; Lauriente, Moffi
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Rongier, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Gerson, Kamara, Guendouzi; Under, Bakambu, Harit
We say: Lorient 0-1 Marseille
Without the effervescent Payet leading the charge, Marseille's chances of a goal-laden showing have taken a major hit, while the midweek fatigue could certainly work against them as well.
However, if Lorient are to sacrifice an attacker for a more defensively-minded setup, breaking down the Olympiens backline will be a tall order for Pelissier's side, who may fall just short in Marseille's most winnable game left.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marseille win with a probability of 48.61%. A win for Lorient has a probability of 27.3% and a draw has a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline is Lorient 1-1 Marseille with a probability of 11.31% and the second most likely scoreline is Lorient 1-2 Marseille with a probability of 9.51%.