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Ligue 1
Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31
Apr 28, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Lens logo

Marseille
2 - 1
Lens

Aubameyang (1'), Gueye (85')
Gueye (41'), Balerdi (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Said (77')
Danso (54'), Wahi (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Nice
Wednesday, April 24 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Lens

All competitions
Last Game: Lens 1-0 Clermont
Saturday, April 20 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 2-2 Lens

 This will be a very tricky fixture for the hosts to navigate. Not only are they facing a top-six side, but they are also just four days out from a crucial Europa League semi-final first-leg clash against Atalanta, and based on their recent performances, Gasset seems to have made the continental competition his side's primary focus, which could work in Lens' favour here. We feel this one will end level at the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 44.93%. A win for Lens had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Lens win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawLens
44.93% (0.321 0.32) 25.2% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 29.87% (-0.321 -0.32)
Both teams to score 54.96% (-0.162 -0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.64% (-0.131 -0.13)48.36% (0.129 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.5% (-0.12 -0.12)70.5% (0.11699999999999 0.12)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.47% (0.090999999999994 0.09)21.53% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.4% (0.143 0.14)54.59% (-0.147 -0.15)
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.04% (-0.28999999999999 -0.29)29.96% (0.287 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.93% (-0.35 -0.35)66.07% (0.346 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 44.93%
    Lens 29.87%
    Draw 25.2%
MarseilleDrawLens
1-0 @ 9.91% (0.078999999999999 0.08)
2-1 @ 9.17% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 7.61% (0.083 0.08)
3-1 @ 4.69% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.89% (0.053 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.83% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.8% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.5% (0.025 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.09% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 44.93%
1-1 @ 11.94% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.45% (0.034 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.14% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.2%
0-1 @ 7.78% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 7.2% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-2 @ 4.69% (-0.05 -0.05)
1-3 @ 2.89% (-0.046 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.22% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.88% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 29.87%

How you voted: Marseille vs Lens

Marseille
48.2%
Draw
39.3%
Lens
12.5%
56
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 12
Lens
1-0
Marseille
Gradit (90')
Gradit (44'), Abdul Samed (76')

Lodi (37'), Oliveira (45+2')
> Preview
May 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 34
Lens
2-1
Marseille
Fofana (42'), Openda (60')
Payet (88')
> Preview
Oct 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 12
Marseille
0-1
Lens
Costa (78')
> Preview
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Lens
0-2
Marseille

Danso (20'), Medina (32'), Sotoca (49')
Payet (34' pen.), Bakambu (77')
Peres (71'), Lirola (86')
> Preview
Sep 26, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Marseille
2-3
Lens
Payet (33', 45+2' pen.)
Gueye (6'), Guendouzi (7')
Sotoca (9' pen.), Frankowski (27'), Said (71')
Said (90+2')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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