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AJ Auxerre
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Ligue 1
Lens logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 34
May 6, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Felix Bollaert
Marseille

Lens
2 - 1
Marseille

Fofana (42'), Openda (60')
Onana (11'), Medina (24'), Frankowski (45+1'), Gradit (63'), Samba (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Payet (88')
Tudor (36'), Rongier (45+3'), Tavares (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lens

All competitions
Last Game: Toulouse 0-1 Lens
Tuesday, May 2 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: Marseille 2-1 Auxerre
Sunday, April 30 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lens 2-1 Marseille

 While their second-placed standing is nothing to be scoffed at, Marseille needed a huge slice of luck to get over the line against Lyon and were unconvincing for 75 minutes against Auxerre, although their excellence on rival territory must also be taken in account. However, Lens have been an almost unbreakable force at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, and having recently taught Monaco a footballing lesson on home soil, we can envisage the Openda-inspired Sang et Or coming up trumps and leapfrogging their fellow podium contenders in this potentially season-defining showdown. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 37.24%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 35.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lens in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lens.

Result
LensDrawMarseille
37.24% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04) 27.32% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06) 35.44% (0.1 0.1)
Both teams to score 49.88% (0.178 0.18)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.35% (0.22 0.22)55.65% (-0.219 -0.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.19% (0.179 0.18)76.81% (-0.17899999999999 -0.18)
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.18% (0.081000000000003 0.08)28.82% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.32% (0.099000000000004 0.1)64.68% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.08% (0.172 0.17)29.92% (-0.173 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.98% (0.205 0.2)66.02% (-0.205 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Lens 37.23%
    Marseille 35.44%
    Draw 27.31%
LensDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 10.72% (-0.069999999999999 -0.07)
2-1 @ 8.05% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.67% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.34% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.77% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.02% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.04% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 37.23%
1-1 @ 12.94% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 8.62% (-0.074 -0.07)
2-2 @ 4.86% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 27.31%
0-1 @ 10.4% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.81% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 6.28% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.14% (0.025 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.53% (0.015 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.95% (0.02 0.02)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 35.44%

How you voted: Lens vs Marseille

Lens
62.5%
Draw
18.8%
Marseille
18.8%
96
Head to Head
Oct 22, 2022 8pm
gameweek 12
Marseille
0-1
Lens

Kolasinac (14')
Costa (78')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
gameweek 22
Lens
0-2
Marseille

Danso (20'), Medina (32'), Sotoca (49')
Payet (34' pen.), Bakambu (77')
Peres (71'), Lirola (86')
Sep 26, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 8
Marseille
2-3
Lens
Payet (33', 45+2' pen.)
Gueye (6'), Guendouzi (7')
Sotoca (9' pen.), Frankowski (27'), Said (71')
Said (90+2')
Feb 3, 2021 8pm
gameweek 23
Lens
2-2
Marseille
Sotoca (46'), Medina (61')
Fofana (43'), Doucoure (48'), Medina (63'), Jean (90+2')
Thauvin (37'), Milik (45+2')
Lirola (60'), Gonzalez (90+1')
Jan 20, 2021 8pm
gameweek 9
Marseille
0-1
Lens

Gueye (55'), Balerdi (62'), Perrin (69'), Khaoui (81'), Cuisance (90+1')
Banza (59')
Haidara (19'), Banza (25'), Medina (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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