Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33

Apr 30, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
2 - 1
Auxerre

Under (75'), Sanchez (77')
Sanchez (41')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Toure (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Auxerre, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Last Game: Lyon 1-2 Marseille
Sunday, April 23 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Auxerre

All competitions

Last Game: Auxerre 1-1 Lille
Saturday, April 22 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Marseille 2-1 Auxerre

Marseille's form at the Velodrome has not been great, but a win here last time out plus success at Lyon last week may give the side an additional boost. Auxerre will not make it easy for OM, though, and should cause the home side more than a few problems in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 63.97%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 15.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for an Auxerre win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Auxerre
63.97% ( 0.83)	20.2% ( -0.29)	15.83% ( -0.54)

Both teams to score 52.81% (

-0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.76% (

0.3)

42.24% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.35% (

0.3)

64.64% (

-0.3)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.48% (

0.33)

12.52% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.47% (

0.68)

38.53% (

-0.68)

Auxerre Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.36% (

-0.5)

39.63% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.68% (

-0.47)

76.32% (

0.47)

Score Analysis

Marseille 63.96%

Auxerre 15.83%

Draw 20.2%

Marseille	Draw	Auxerre
2-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 10.3% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.14) 4-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.6% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.41% Total : 63.96%	1-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.96% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.2%	0-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.92% Total : 15.83%