Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 11, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Benfica2 - 1Marseille
The Match
Match Report
Benfica secure a first-leg lead at home against Marseille in their Europa League quarter-final tie thanks to goals by Rafa Silva and Angel Di Maria in either half.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Benfica and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Benfica
Saturday, April 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, April 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Lille 3-1 Marseille
Friday, April 5 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Friday, April 5 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 60.49%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 18.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 1-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Marseille win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Benfica in this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Marseille |
60.49% ( -0.01) | 21.03% ( 0) | 18.48% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 55.56% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.67% ( -0.01) | 41.33% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.27% ( -0.01) | 63.72% ( 0.01) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.76% ( -0.01) | 13.24% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.98% ( -0.02) | 40.01% ( 0.01) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.04% ( 0) | 35.96% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.26% ( 0) | 72.74% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica 60.49%
Marseille 18.48%
Draw 21.03%
Benfica | Draw | Marseille |
2-1 @ 9.95% 2-0 @ 9.73% 1-0 @ 9.63% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.71% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.56% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.43% 4-1 @ 3.39% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.32% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.37% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 3.33% Total : 60.49% | 1-1 @ 9.85% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.09% 0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.03% | 1-2 @ 5.04% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.87% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.72% ( 0) Other @ 2.63% Total : 18.48% |
How you voted: Benfica vs Marseille
Benfica
78.5%Draw
16.0%Marseille
5.6%144
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-13 13:22:10
Friday, June 14
8pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Scotland
Saturday, June 15
2pm
Group Stage
Hungary
vs.
Switzerland
5pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Croatia
8pm
Group Stage
Italy
vs.
Albania
Sunday, June 16
2pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Netherlands
5pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Denmark
8pm
Group Stage
Serbia
vs.
England
Monday, June 17
2pm
Group Stage
Romania
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Slovakia
8pm
Group Stage
Austria
vs.
France
Tuesday, June 18
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Georgia
8pm
Group Stage
Portugal
vs.
Czech Republic
Wednesday, June 19
2pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Albania
5pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Switzerland
Thursday, June 20
2pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Serbia
5pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
England
8pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
2pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
France
Saturday, June 22
2pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Czech Republic
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Portugal
8pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Romania
Sunday, June 23
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Switzerland
vs.
Germany
Monday, June 24
8pm
Group Stage
Albania
vs.
Spain
8pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Italy
Tuesday, June 25
5pm
Group Stage
France
vs.
Poland
5pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
Serbia
8pm
Group Stage
England
vs.
Slovenia
Wednesday, June 26
5pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Romania
5pm
Group Stage
Ukraine
vs.
Belgium
8pm
Group Stage
Czech Republic
vs.
Turkey
8pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Portugal
Saturday, June 29
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group A
vs.
2nd Group B
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group A
vs.
2nd Group C
Sunday, June 30
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group C
vs.
3rd Group D/E/F
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group B
vs.
3rd Group A/D/E/F
Monday, July 1
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group D
vs.
2nd Group E
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group F
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C
Tuesday, July 2
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group E
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C/D
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group D
vs.
2nd Group F
Friday, July 5
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Group A
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Germany | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Hungary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Group D
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1
West Ham confirm £25m arrival - Lopetegui beats Chelsea, Man Utd to first signing
2
Man Utd 'make move' for 21-year-old Bundesliga striker
3
Colombia vs. Bolivia - prediction, team news, lineups
4
Ratcliffe 'to hand Ten Hag £140m war chest at Man United'
5
Real Madrid 'make contact' over summer move for Tottenham star
6
Most bizarre contract announcement? Chelsea striker extends terms after exit prank
7
Arsenal 'include Premier League striker' on three-man list of Sesko alternatives
8
Transfer rumours: Guendouzi to Villa, Mangala to Lyon, Mengi to Fulham
9
What records could Lionel Messi break at the 2024 Copa America?
10
How many medals did Great Britain win at European Athletics Championship?
Sport News 24/7