La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 22

Jan 28, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
2 - 0
Valencia

Lino (45+5'), Depay (57')
Molina (49'), Niguez (83')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Sevilla
Thursday, January 25 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

Valencia

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Valencia 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, January 20 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Valencia

It is almost 13 years since Valencia last beat Atletico away in the league, so it is very difficult to back them to win this game even considering their strong form. Atletico's home record this season has been excellent, meanwhile, and we are expecting Simeone's side to edge a close game here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.85%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 20.13%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Valencia
55.85% ( 0.8)	24.02% ( -0.36)	20.13% ( -0.45)

Both teams to score 48.81% (

0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.3% (

0.86)

51.7% (

-0.86)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.52% (

0.74)

73.48% (

-0.74)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.63% (

0.63)

18.37% (

-0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.5% (

1.06)

49.5% (

-1.06)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.79% (

0.02)

40.2% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.16% (

0.02)

76.84% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 55.84%

Valencia 20.13%

Draw 24.02%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Valencia
1-0 @ 12.51% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 5.46% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.24% Total : 55.84%	1-1 @ 11.4% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.83% Total : 24.02%	0-1 @ 6.73% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.29% Total : 20.13%