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La Liga | Gameweek 17
Dec 16, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
San Mames Barria
Atletico Madrid logo

Athletic Bilbao
2 - 0
Atletico

Guruzeta (51'), Williams (64')
FT(HT: 0-0)

De Paul (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Atletico 2-0 Lazio
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Only one of the last six La Liga meetings between these two sides have finished level, but we are predicting a stalemate on Saturday. Athletic are strong at home, while Atletico's away form has been patchy, so we are finding it difficult to predict another victory for Simeone's side here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
48.36% (0.045999999999999 0.05) 24.45% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 27.19% (-0.044 -0.04)
Both teams to score 55.54% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.25% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)46.75% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.99% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)69.01% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.6% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)19.4% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.79% (0.012 0.01)51.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.91% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)31.09% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.59% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)67.41% (0.058000000000007 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 48.36%
    Atletico Madrid 27.19%
    Draw 24.45%
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.89% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 8.11% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.43% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.03% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.12% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 1.82% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 48.36%
1-1 @ 11.55%
0-0 @ 6.03% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.54% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.45%
0-1 @ 7.05% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 6.75% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.12% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.63% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.6% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 27.19%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico

Athletic Bilbao
40.3%
Draw
17.9%
Atletico Madrid
41.8%
67
Head to Head
Feb 19, 2023 5.30pm
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 34
Athletic Bilbao
2-0
Atletico
Hermoso (8' og.), Williams (56' pen.)
Garcia (25'), Williams (68'), Berenguer (90+1')

Hermoso (1'), Mandava (18'), Lodi (71')
Jan 13, 2022 7pm
Semi-Finals
Atletico
1-2
Athletic Bilbao
Simeone (62' og.)
Vrsaljko (90+1')
Gimenez (90+3')
Alvarez (77'), Williams (81')
Martinez (83'), Vesga (90'), Williams (90+1')
Sep 18, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 5
Atletico
0-0
Athletic Bilbao
Kondogbia (36'), Felix (78'), Savic (79'), Cunha (90'), Gimenez (90+7')
Felix (78')
Garcia (30'), Williams Arthuer (82')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona12110140112933
2Real Madrid1173121111024
3Atletico MadridAtletico126511871123
4Villarreal116322019121
5Osasuna126331716121
6Athletic Bilbao125431812619
7Real BetisBetis125431210219
8Mallorca12534109118
9Rayo Vallecano114431210216
10Celta Vigo125161820-216
11Real Sociedad124351010015
12GironaGirona124351517-215
13Sevilla124351217-515
14AlavesAlaves124171419-513
15Leganes122551216-411
16Getafe12174810-210
17Espanyol123181122-1110
18Las PalmasLas Palmas122371321-89
19Real ValladolidValladolid12228924-158
20Valencia11146817-97


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