La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 13

Nov 12, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
3 - 1
Villarreal

Witsel (45+1'), Griezmann (80'), Lino (85')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Moreno (20')
Capoue (45+2'), Akhomach (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Atletico 6-0 Celtic
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Villarreal

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 1-2 Villarreal
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal

Villarreal have shown improvement of late, but they are well below the team that impressed for long stages of last season, and we are finding it tough to predict them to pick up a positive result here. Atletico will be desperate to return to winning ways in the league, and Simeone's side should have enough quality to secure all three points this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Villarreal
50.19% ( 0.46)	23.28% ( 0.16)	26.53% ( -0.62)

Both teams to score 58.95% (

-1.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.01% (

-1.27)

41.99% (

1.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.6% (

-1.28)

64.4% (

1.29)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.13% (

-0.3)

16.86% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.12% (

-0.54)

46.88% (

0.55)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.9% (

-1.12)

29.1% (

1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.98% (

-1.4)

65.02% (

1.41)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 50.19%

Villarreal 26.53%

Draw 23.27%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Villarreal
2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.28) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.21% Total : 50.19%	1-1 @ 10.78% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.27) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.27%	1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.36% Total : 26.53%