La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 11

Oct 29, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
2 - 1
Alaves

Riquelme (26'), Morata (45+1')
Llorente (71'), Hermoso (71'), Oblak (83')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Guevara (90+6')
Duarte (71'), Hagi (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Alaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Celtic 2-2 Atletico
Wednesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Alaves

All competitions

Last Game: Villarreal 1-1 Alaves
Sunday, October 22 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Alaves

Alaves will certainly have had longer to prepare for this match, but it is so difficult to back them to pick up a positive result. Atletico's recent form in La Liga is excellent, and we are expecting the capital side to secure another three points in Sunday's contest at Wanda Metropolitano. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 56.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 19.08%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Alaves
56.1% ( -0.23)	24.82% ( 0.13)	19.08% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 45% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.07% (

-0.36)

55.93% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.96% (

-0.29)

77.04% (

0.29)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.11% (

-0.23)

19.89% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.99% (

-0.37)

52.01% (

0.37)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.17% (

-0.1)

43.83% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.02% (

-0.09)

79.98% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 56.08%

Alaves 19.08%

Draw 24.82%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Alaves
1-0 @ 14.07% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 11.36% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.04% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.52% Total : 56.08%	1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.72% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.62% Total : 24.82%	0-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.75% Total : 19.08%