Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 38.84%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.