La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 38

Jun 4, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid
1 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

Benzema (72' pen.)
Ceballos (55'), Carvajal (85')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sancet (49')
Sancet (57'), Berchiche (71')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Sevilla 1-2 Real Madrid
Saturday, May 27 at 6pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Elche
Sunday, May 28 at 6pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Real Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic have a lot to fight for on the final matchday of the campaign, but the Basque outfit are again expected to be missing some important players, which could cost them the chance to pick up a positive result. Real Madrid will also be looking to secure the victory which would guarantee second, and we are expecting the home side to collect all three points at Bernabeu. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 55.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
55.72% ( 2.6)	22.74% ( -1)	21.54% ( -1.59)

Both teams to score 54.91% (

1.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.38% (

2.56)

44.62% (

-2.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.01% (

2.43)

66.99% (

-2.42)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.14% (

1.85)

15.86% (

-1.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.94% (

3.3)

45.06% (

-3.3)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.26% (

-0.05)

34.74% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.53% (

-0.06)

71.47% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 55.72%

Athletic Bilbao 21.54%

Draw 22.73%

Real Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.49) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.44) 3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.42) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.23) 4-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.36) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.34) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.19) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.19) 5-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.45% Total : 55.72%	1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.53) 0-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.63) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.73%	0-1 @ 5.83% ( -0.68) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 2% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.05% Total : 21.54%