Real Madrid2 - 1Rayo Vallecano
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Sunday, May 21 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Sunday, May 21 at 1pm in La Liga
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We said: Real Madrid 3-1 Rayo Vallecano
Both teams will be keen to bounce back from defeats last weekend and claim maximum points in their quests to achieve their respective targets in the final three games of the campaign. Rayo Vallecano will fancy their chances of causing another upset against Real Madrid, but we believe that the hosts will continue their strong form on home soil and come out on top on Wednesday, even without the presence of Vinicius in attack. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 72.87%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 9.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.68%) and 3-0 (9.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
72.87% ( 0.18) | 17.21% ( -0.06) | 9.92% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 45.1% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.88% ( -0.08) | 43.12% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.48% ( -0.08) | 65.52% ( 0.08) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.61% ( 0.02) | 10.39% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 66.09% ( 0.05) | 33.91% ( -0.05) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.33% ( -0.3) | 49.67% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 15.57% ( -0.21) | 84.43% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2-0 @ 13.23% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 11.68% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.96% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.56% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.79% 4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.97% Total : 72.87% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.63% Total : 17.21% | 0-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.19% Total : 9.92% |
How you voted: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
