We said: Girona 1-2 Real Madrid
Girona's home form this season has been strong, winning eight of their 15 matches, but Real Madrid have the second-best away record in the division, claiming 31 points from 15 games. It would not be a surprise to see a draw here, but we just have a feeling that the reigning champions will navigate their way to all three points.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 59.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Girona had a probability of 18.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.06%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Girona win it was 1-0 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.