Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
29% ( 1.05) | 26.47% ( 0.18) | 44.52% ( -1.23) |
Both teams to score 50.44% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.99% ( -0.17) | 54.01% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.55% ( -0.14) | 75.44% ( 0.14) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.49% ( 0.72) | 33.51% ( -0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.85% ( 0.78) | 70.15% ( -0.78) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.86% ( -0.66) | 24.14% ( 0.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.55% ( -0.95) | 58.45% ( 0.95) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 4.84% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.4% Total : 29% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.47% | 0-1 @ 11.49% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.27) 1-3 @ 4.23% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.63% Total : 44.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 24 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 23 |
4 | Villarreal | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 21 |
5 | Osasuna | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 19 |
8 | Mallorca | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 16 |
11 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
12 | GironaGirona | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
13 | Sevilla | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 15 |
14 | AlavesAlaves | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
15 | Leganes | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
16 | Getafe | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
17 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
18 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 8 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |