Atletico Madrid will be looking to avoid a fifth straight La Liga defeat when they take on high-flying Rayo Vallecano at Wanda Metropolitano on Sunday afternoon.
The reigning Spanish champions are currently fifth in the table, 17 points behind leaders Real Madrid, while Rayo have collected 30 points from their 18 matches this season to sit fourth.
Match preview
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Atletico's disastrous December has all but ended their title hopes, with four straight defeats to Mallorca, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Granada leaving them well off the pace when it comes to the top of the division.
Indeed, a total of 29 points from 18 matches has left them in fifth position in the table, some 17 points behind division leaders Real Madrid, while they are also nine points off second-placed Sevilla, so third position might be the best that the reigning champions could hope for this term.
Much of Atletico's success in recent weeks has been built on a strong defence, but they have already conceded 22 league goals this season, and the fact that they have not picked up a single point in December is a real concern, particularly ahead of another tough match at Villarreal on January 9.
The Red and Whites have won just one of their last seven away league matches, but they have again largely been strong in front of their own supporters this season.
Atletico have also been victorious in each of their last five top-flight games against Rayo, including 1-0 wins in each of their last three meetings, with Rayo's last success in this fixture coming back in February 2013.
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Rayo, meanwhile, had allegedly been keen for this match to be postponed due to a severe coronavirus outbreak in the squad, but the fixture is going ahead as planned, for the moment.
The capital outfit have enjoyed a remarkable season to date, boasting a record of nine wins, three draws and six defeats from 18 matches to collect 30 points, which has left them in fourth position in the table, one point ahead of fifth-placed Atletico and just three behind third-placed Real Betis.
Rayo are set to be without a number of important players this weekend, which is a blow considering that they have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, including a 2-0 success over Alaves in their last La Liga contest on December 18.
Andoni Iraola's side have also managed to progress in the Copa del Rey, with the club due to take on Mirandes in the next round of the competition on January 5, and the squad should soon be boosted by the return of the majority of those to have tested positive for COVID-19.
Rayo's best top-flight campaign to date was ninth in 1999-2000, so it could be a famous campaign for the club, who secured a return to this level by advancing through the Segunda Division playoffs last term.
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Team News
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Atletico will again be missing Marcos Llorente and Stefan Savic through injury, but Jose Gimenez and Sime Vrsaljko were both back in first-team training on Friday.
The Red and Whites have been hit with the news that Koke, Joao Felix, Antoine Griezmann and Hector Herrera have tested positive for coronavirus, while Simeone will also not be on the touchline, having contracted the virus.
Luis Suarez, who has been linked with a move away from the club, is likely to be joined in the final third of the field by Angel Correa, while a switch to a 4-4-2 formation could see Renan Lodi feature at left-back.
Rayo, as mentioned, have had a number of players test positive for coronavirus, while Martin Merquelanz and Alvaro Garcia will miss the match due to knee and hamstring issues respectively.
The visitors will hope to recover a few first-team players in time for the match but much will depend on the next round of testing at the club, and there is still a chance that the contest could be called off.
Radamel Falcao will miss out on the chance to face his former club following a positive COVID-19 test, but Sergi Guardiola is believed to be one of those in with a chance of returning in the final third of the field.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Trippier, Gimenez, Hermoso, Lodi; Carrasco, De Paul, Kondogbia, Lemar; Correa, Suarez
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Arboleda; Balliu, Saveljich, Catena, Rodrigues; Comesana, Valentin; Palazon, Trejo, Martin; Guardiola
We say: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano
Under normal circumstances, we would be backing Rayo to give Atletico an incredibly difficult match and might have tipped a score draw in this contest; the visitors will be missing a number of important players, though, so we are backing Atletico to pick up a much-needed three points.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 19.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
