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Atletico Madrid logo
La Liga | Gameweek 30
Apr 2, 2022 at 8pm UK
Vicente Calderon Stadium
Alaves logo

Atletico
4 - 1
Alaves

Felix (11', 82'), Suarez (75' pen., 90')
Llorente (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Escalante (63')

Preview: Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Alaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Atletico Madrid will be bidding to make it six La Liga victories in a row when they welcome Alaves to Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday night.

Diego Simeone's side are currently fourth in the table, three points behind second-placed Sevilla, while Alaves occupy 19th position, five points behind 17th-placed Cadiz ahead of this weekend's fixtures.


Match preview

Atletico Madrid's Koke celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 19, 2022© Reuters

Atletico made it five La Liga victories in a row when they beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 before the international break, with Koke scoring the only goal of the contest, and the result left Simeone's side in fourth spot in the table, three points behind second-placed Sevilla.

The capital giants have had their problems this season, and they have not been able to launch a strong defence of their title, currently sitting 12 points behind division leaders Real Madrid.

However, Atletico now have second position in their sights, while they beat Manchester United 2-1 on aggregate in the last-16 stage of the Champions League to set up a quarter-final with Manchester City, and the first leg of the last-eight affair will take place at the Etihad Stadium next week.

It will be fascinating to see whether Simeone's team can make it a Manchester double in the European Cup this term, and the capital outfit appear to have found their best form at the business end of the campaign.

The Red and Whites have the fourth-best home record in La Liga this term, picking up 30 points from their 14 matches, and they will be taking on an Alaves outfit that have won just once on their travels in the league this season, collecting only six points from 14 games.

 Alaves' Victor Laguardia celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on September 25, 2021© Reuters

Alaves have lost their last two in Spain's top flight, going down 1-0 away to Real Sociedad on March 13 before suffering a 3-2 home defeat to Granada before the international break.

The Basque outfit have not been victorious in the league since overcoming Valencia on February 13, with their recent run seeing them drop into 19th spot in the table, collecting just 22 points from 29 matches.

Alaves are five points behind 17th-placed Cadiz, and there is certainly enough time to escape the relegation zone, but they will need to start picking up victories sooner rather than later.

Jose Luis Mendilibar's side have found it difficult to secure results on their travels this season, losing 10 of their 14 matches, but they also have the third-worst home form, so it is not a surprise to see them struggling towards the bottom of the table.

Alaves, who finished 16th in La Liga last season, actually beat Atletico 1-0 in the reverse match earlier this season, but they lost 1-0 at Wanda Metropolitano in the league last term.

Atletico Madrid La Liga form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Alaves La Liga form:
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L



Team News

Atletico Madrid's Renan Lodi celebrates scoring their first goal with Reinildo Mandava and Koke on March 15, 2022© Reuters

Atletico will be missing both Angel Correa and Koke through suspension this weekend, while the capital giants still have a number of fitness concerns ahead of their return to La Liga action.

Indeed, Daniel Wass, Matheus Cunha, Thomas Lemar and Sime Vrsaljko remain doubts, but Yannick Carrasco and Javier Serrano are both available following suspensions.

Simeone will have one eye on next week's Champions League clash with Man City, but the Argentine will still send a strong side onto the field in a 3-5-2 formation.

Geoffrey Kondogbia could return in the middle of the park, while Luis Suarez could get the nod in attack, with Antoine Griezmann potentially rested ahead of the clash with Man City.

As for Alaves, Javi Lopez will miss the match due to a hamstring problem, but the visitors are otherwise in strong shape heading into the contest.

Head coach Mendilibar will have been pleased with his team's attacking performance against Granada last time out, so it would not be a surprise to see Joselu and Manu Vallejo again feature as the front two.

Luis Rioja is also expected to retain his spot in a wide area, while Ruben Duarte and Facundo Tenaglia should keep their positions in the full-back areas.

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Reinildo; Llorente, Herrera, Kondogbia, De Paul, Carrasco; Suarez, Felix

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Tenaglia, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Mendez, Escalante, Loum, Rioja; Joselu, Vallejo


SM words green background

We say: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Alaves

Atletico's recent form has been extremely impressive, and we are fully expecting them to put another victory on the board this weekend. Alaves beat the capital giants earlier this season, but we are finding it very difficult to back the visitors to pick up a positive result at Wanda Metropolitano.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 76.07%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 7.89%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.69%) and 3-0 (11.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (3.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Atletico vs Alaves

Atletico Madrid
90.8%
Draw
6.1%
Alaves
3.1%
98
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Atletico Madrid coach Diego Simeone on February 12, 2022
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona18122450203038
2Atletico MadridAtletico17115131112038
3Real Madrid17114237162137
4Athletic Bilbao1896327161133
5Mallorca188371821-327
6Villarreal167542827126
7Real Sociedad177461611525
8Osasuna176742225-325
9Real BetisBetis176652021-124
10GironaGirona176472325-222
11Sevilla176471823-522
12Celta Vigo176382528-321
13Rayo Vallecano165561819-120
14Las PalmasLas Palmas175482227-519
15Leganes174671523-818
16Getafe173771114-316
17AlavesAlaves174491928-916
18Espanyol1642101528-1314
19Real ValladolidValladolid1733111234-2212
20Valencia152491323-1010


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