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Champions League header

Champions League
Atletico Madrid logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Dec 13, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Lazio logo

Atletico
2 - 0
Lazio

Griezmann (6'), Lino (51')
Gimenez (45+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Pedro (8'), Marusic (47'), Guendouzi (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Almeria
Sunday, December 10 at 1pm in La Liga

Lazio

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-1 Lazio
Saturday, December 9 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Lazio

 A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched teams is set to take place on Wednesday, just like the reverse fixture three months ago, although Atletico will be regarded as the favourites to win on home soil. Considering Atletico's solid home form and Lazio's recent troubles on the road, we believe that Simeone's men will do enough to grind out a slender win in front of their own fans and secure top spot in Group E. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.41%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 21.55%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawLazio
55.41% (-0.536 -0.54) 23.04% (0.602 0.6) 21.55% (-0.07 -0.07)
Both teams to score 53.93% (-2.105 -2.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.06% (-2.747 -2.75)45.94% (2.744 2.74)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.75% (-2.657 -2.66)68.25% (2.653 2.65)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.57% (-1.147 -1.15)16.43% (1.143 1.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.89% (-2.109 -2.11)46.1% (2.105 2.11)
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.53% (-1.613 -1.61)35.47% (1.609 1.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.76% (-1.708 -1.71)72.23% (1.704 1.7)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 55.4%
    Lazio 21.55%
    Draw 23.03%
Atletico MadridDrawLazio
1-0 @ 10.52% (0.799 0.8)
2-1 @ 9.85% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-0 @ 9.5% (0.375 0.38)
3-1 @ 5.93% (-0.259 -0.26)
3-0 @ 5.72% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.278 -0.28)
4-1 @ 2.68% (-0.228 -0.23)
4-0 @ 2.58% (-0.1 -0.1)
4-2 @ 1.39% (-0.186 -0.19)
5-1 @ 0.97% (-0.125 -0.13)
5-0 @ 0.93% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 55.4%
1-1 @ 10.9% (0.38 0.38)
0-0 @ 5.83% (0.652 0.65)
2-2 @ 5.11% (-0.248 -0.25)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.148 -0.15)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.03%
0-1 @ 6.04% (0.435 0.44)
1-2 @ 5.65% (-0.047 -0.05)
0-2 @ 3.13% (0.096 0.1)
1-3 @ 1.95% (-0.105 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.76% (-0.169 -0.17)
0-3 @ 1.08% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 21.55%

How you voted: Atletico vs Lazio

Atletico Madrid
82.4%
Draw
13.4%
Lazio
4.2%
142
Head to Head
Sep 19, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Lazio
1-1
Atletico
Provedel (90+5')
Sarri (36'), Patric (83'), Immobile (84')
Barrios (29')
Simeone (21'), Griezmann (26'), Lino (67'), Correa (90+4')
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