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La Liga | Gameweek 26
Mar 18, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
Valencia logo

Atletico
3 - 0
Valencia

Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
Griezmann (4'), Llorente (42')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last Game: Girona 0-1 Atletico
Monday, March 13 at 8pm in La Liga

Valencia

All competitions
Last Game: Valencia 1-0 Osasuna
Saturday, March 11 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia

 Valencia have shown recent improvement in the league, but they have been so disappointing on their travels, and Atletico are currently in excellent form. We are finding it difficult to predict anything other than a home success on Saturday evening, but it should be a close game in terms of the scoreline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 59.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 17.18%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
59.39% (-1.283 -1.28) 23.43% (0.519 0.52) 17.18% (0.762 0.76)
Both teams to score 45.62% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.67% (-0.812 -0.81)53.33% (0.811 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.12% (-0.692 -0.69)74.88% (0.691 0.69)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.33% (-0.74600000000001 -0.75)17.67% (0.744 0.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.7% (-1.306 -1.31)48.3% (1.305 1.31)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.42% (0.491 0.49)44.58% (-0.492 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.4% (0.394 0.39)80.6% (-0.395 -0.39)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 59.38%
    Valencia 17.18%
    Draw 23.43%
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
1-0 @ 13.65% (0.1 0.1)
2-0 @ 11.83% (-0.2 -0.2)
2-1 @ 9.56% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.84% (-0.29 -0.29)
3-1 @ 5.52% (-0.156 -0.16)
4-0 @ 2.96% (-0.202 -0.2)
4-1 @ 2.39% (-0.129 -0.13)
3-2 @ 2.23% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.03% (-0.097 -0.1)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 59.38%
1-1 @ 11.03% (0.23 0.23)
0-0 @ 7.88% (0.248 0.25)
2-2 @ 3.86% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 23.43%
0-1 @ 6.37% (0.285 0.29)
1-2 @ 4.46% (0.153 0.15)
0-2 @ 2.57% (0.148 0.15)
1-3 @ 1.2% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.04% (0.025 0.03)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 17.18%

How you voted: Atletico vs Valencia

Atletico Madrid
87.6%
Draw
7.2%
Valencia
5.2%
97
Head to Head
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
Nov 7, 2021 3.15pm
Valencia
3-3
Atletico
Savic (50' og.), Duro (90+2', 90+6')
Guillamon (76'), Musah (90+4')
Suarez (35'), Griezmann (58'), Vrsaljko (62')
Carrasco (90'), Griezmann (90+5')
Jan 24, 2021 8pm
Atletico
3-1
Valencia
Felix (23'), Suarez (54'), Correa (72')
Vrsaljko (30'), Savic (76')
Racic (11')
Nov 28, 2020 3.15pm
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Racic (28'), Guillamon (57')
Lato (79' og.)
Niguez (43'), Correa (62'), Llorente (76'), Felix (81'), Koke (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona18122450203038
2Atletico MadridAtletico17115131112038
3Real Madrid17114237162137
4Athletic Bilbao1896327161133
5Mallorca188371821-327
6Villarreal167542827126
7Real Sociedad177461611525
8Osasuna176742225-325
9Real BetisBetis176652021-124
10GironaGirona176472325-222
11Sevilla176471823-522
12Celta Vigo176382528-321
13Rayo Vallecano165561819-120
14Las PalmasLas Palmas175482227-519
15Leganes174671523-818
16Getafe173771114-316
17AlavesAlaves174491928-916
18Espanyol1642101528-1314
19Real ValladolidValladolid1733111234-2212
20Valencia152491323-1010
> La Liga Full Table


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