While this is certainly not the Uruguay squad that we are used to seeing in recent years, La Celeste should still have too much quality in their ranks for the visitors, particularly with an anticipated boost following Bielsa's appointment. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 71.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Nicaragua had a probability of 9.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 2-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.63%) and 3-0 (10.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for a Nicaragua win it was 0-1 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
Uruguay	Draw	Nicaragua
71.77% ( -0.02)	18.73% ( 0.01)	9.5% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 38.79% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.17% (

0.01)

50.83% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.29% (

0.01)

72.71% (

-0.01)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.15% (

-0)

12.85% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.78% (

-0.01)

39.22% (

0.01)

Nicaragua Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.51% (

0.04)

55.48% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.83% (

0.02)

88.17% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Uruguay 71.76%

Nicaragua 9.5%

Draw 18.73%

Uruguay	Draw	Nicaragua
2-0 @ 15% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 14.63% 3-0 @ 10.26% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.05% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.16% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.27% 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 71.76%	1-1 @ 8.62% ( 0) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.6% ( 0) Other @ 0.38% Total : 18.73%	0-1 @ 4.2% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 1.52% Total : 9.5%