FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round

Jan 28, 2023 at 3pm UK

Kenilworth Road

Luton
2 - 2
Grimsby Town

Adebayo (49' pen.), Clark (66')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Holohan (43'), Clifton (67')
Clifton (45+1'), Orsi (65'), Maher (73'), Holohan (88'), Crocombe (90+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Luton Town and Grimsby Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Wigan 0-2 Luton
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Grimsby Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Swindon 5-0 Grimsby Town
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Luton Town 2-0 Grimsby Town

Luton have won each of their last 16 FA Cup ties as a Football League club against teams from a lower division, and they will be regarded as favourites to come out on top on Saturday. Grimsby, meanwhile, have struggled away from home in recent weeks, losing five of their last six matches on the road, and another defeat could be on the cards at Kenilworth Road. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 52.63%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 24.25% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.

Result
Luton Town	Draw	Grimsby Town
52.63% ( 0)	23.12%	24.25%

Both teams to score 57.12% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.67% (

43.33% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.27% (

65.73% (

-0)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.53%

16.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.82% (

46.19% (

-0)

Grimsby Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.39% (

31.61% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.99% (

68.01% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Luton Town 52.63%

Grimsby Town 24.25%

Draw 23.11%

Luton Town	Draw	Grimsby Town
2-1 @ 9.75% 1-0 @ 9.39% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.47% 3-1 @ 5.86% 3-0 @ 5.09% 3-2 @ 3.38% 4-1 @ 2.64% 4-0 @ 2.3% 4-2 @ 1.52% 5-1 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.28% Total : 52.63%	1-1 @ 10.81% 2-2 @ 5.62% 0-0 @ 5.21% 3-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.11%	1-2 @ 6.23% 0-1 @ 6% 0-2 @ 3.45% 1-3 @ 2.39% 2-3 @ 2.16% 0-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.7% Total : 24.25%