FA Cup | Third Round Replays
Jan 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The DW Stadium
Wigan1 - 2Luton
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Cardiff 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Luton 2-3 West Brom
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship
We said: Wigan Athletic 0-1 Luton Town
This is a difficult match to call, but Luton will fancy their chances of progressing to the fourth round of the competition. Wigan managed to end a four-game losing run in the league by drawing with Cardiff on Saturday, but we believe that Luton will be able to navigate their way to a narrow win here. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wigan Athletic | Draw | Luton Town |
27.58% ( 0.19) | 26.21% ( -0.43) | 46.2% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 50.32% ( 1.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.27% ( 1.76) | 53.73% ( -1.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.79% ( 1.46) | 75.21% ( -1.46) |
| Wigan Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.53% ( 1.09) | 34.46% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.82% ( 1.15) | 71.18% ( -1.15) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.78% ( 0.88) | 23.21% ( -0.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.88% ( 1.27) | 57.12% ( -1.27) |
| Score Analysis |
Wigan Athletic 27.58%
Luton Town 46.2%
Draw 26.21%
| Wigan Athletic | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.34) 2-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.2% Total : 27.58% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 8% ( -0.57)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.2)Other @ 0.92% Total : 26.21% | 0-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.51) 1-2 @ 9.09% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 8.53% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 4.42% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 4.15% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.16)1-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.84% Total : 46.2% |
How you voted: Wigan vs Luton
Wigan Athletic
24.3%Draw
17.6%Luton Town
58.1%74
