Europa League

Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Apr 20, 2023 at 8pm UK

Lotto Park

Union SG
1 - 4
B. Leverkusen

(Bayer Leverkusen win 5-2 on aggregate)

Terho (64')
Teuma (75')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Diaby (2'), Bakker (37'), Frimpong (60'), Hlozek (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Union SG and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union SG

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Union SG 2-1 RFC Seraing
Sunday, April 16 at 6.15pm in Belgian Pro League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Wolfsburg 0-0 B. Leverkusen
Sunday, April 16 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Union SG 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bayer Leverkusen to win 4-2 on aggregate)

Union SG have provided themselves with an excellent chance of continuing their fairytale adventure in the Europa League this season by drawing away from home in the first leg, but we can envisage it coming to an end on Thursday. Leverkusen's form has been increasingly impressive under the tutelage of Alonso, and we expect them to seize the moment and keep their hopes of competing in the Champions League next season well and truly alive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 45.46%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Union SG win was 2-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Union SG	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
30.3% ( -5)	24.23% ( -0.26)	45.46% ( 5.24)

Both teams to score 58.45% (

-0.98)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.1% (

-0.48)

43.89% (

0.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.71% (

-0.47)

66.28% (

0.46)

Union SG Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.58% (

-3.26)

27.42% (

3.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.1% (

-4.41)

62.89% (

4.4)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.53% (

2.16)

19.46% (

-2.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.67% (

3.42)

51.32% (

-3.43)

Score Analysis

Union SG 30.3%

Bayer Leverkusen 45.46%

Draw 24.23%

Union SG	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.76) 1-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.52) 2-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.8) 3-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.67) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.34) 3-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.57) 4-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.34) Other @ 2.94% Total : 30.3%	1-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.55) 0-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.73) 0-2 @ 7.15% ( 1.02) 1-3 @ 5.04% ( 0.6) 0-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.77) 2-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.36) 0-4 @ 1.6% ( 0.4) 2-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.13) Other @ 3.13% Total : 45.46%